How Did They Know?

May 06, 2009

Last summer I tuned in to watch the 200m final at the Beijing Olympics. As the time for the race approached, one by one, all of the commentators predicted Usain Bolt would break the world record in the upcoming race. In fact, the only commentator who predicted Bolt would not break the record, was Michael Johnson, the current 200m record holder.

Let's think about this. Every year 100's of 1000's of meets are held around the world and times are recorded for the 200m sprint. Bolt himself had run this race many times and never come close to the record time. On top of this, Michael Johnson's record time of 19.32s was widely regarded as the track and field record that would be the hardest for anyone to ever break. Before Michael Johnson, Pietro Mennea of Italy had set a record time of 19.72s that had stood for 17 years. Michael Johnson broke that record in the 1996 Olympic trials with a time of 19.66s, and then smashed his own time later that year with a 19.32s time in the Olympics. Many people predicted that record time would never fall.

How then could everyone (except Michael Johnson) predict Bolt would break this impossible time in the upcoming race? Obviously, what a human can achieve is not predictable by normal objective statistical methods. What goes on in the mind may be more important that the rest of the body.

Despite the fact that the sprinters faced a 0.9m/s head wind, Bolt dashed to a 19.30s world record time, doing the impossible, just like everyone knew he would.

-- Greg